Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 2: precipitation     

Seok-Geun Oh  Myoung-Seok Suh  Young-Suk Lee  Joong-Bae Ahn  Dong-Hyun Cha  Dong-Kyou Lee  Song-You Hong  Seung-Ki Min  Seong-Chan Park  Hyun-Suk Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):171-189

Precipitation changes over South Korea were projected using five regional climate models (RCMs) with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km for the mid and late 21st century (2026-2050, 2076- 2100) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios against present precipitation (1981-2005). The simulation data of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere-Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) was used as boundary data of RCMs. In general, the RCMs well simulated the spatial and seasonal variations of present precipitation compared with observation and HadGEM2-AO. Equal Weighted Averaging without Bias Correction (EWA_NBC) significantly reduced the model biases to some extent, but systematic biases in results still remained. However, the Weighted Averaging based on Taylor’s skill score (WEA_Tay) showed a good statistical correction in terms of the spatial and seasonal variations, the magnitude of precipitation amount, and the probability density. In the mid-21st century, the spatial and interannual variabilities of precipitation over South Korea are projected to increase regardless of the RCP scenarios and seasons. However, the changes in area-averaged seasonal precipitation are not significant due to mixed changing patterns depending on locations. Whereas, in the late 21st century, the precipitation is projected to increase proportionally to the changes of net radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, WEA_Tay projects the precipitation to be increased by about +19.1, +20.5, +33.3% for annual, summer and winter precipitation at 1-5% significance levels, respectively. In addition, the probability of strong precipitation (≥ 15 mm d^-1) is also projected to increase significantly, particularly in WEA_Tay under RCP8.5.  相似文献   

Statistical downscaling for daily precipitation in Korea using combined PRISM,RCM, and quantile mapping: Part 1, methodology and evaluation in historical simulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Maeng-Ki Kim  Seonae Kim  Jinuk Kim  Jin Heo  Jeong-Soo Park  Won-Tae Kwon  Myoung-Seok Suh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(2):79-89

In this study, we present the Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)-based Dynamic downscaling Error correction (PRIDE) model, which is suitable for complex topographies, such as the Korean peninsula. The PRIDE model is constructed by combining the PRISM module, the Regional Climate Model (RCM) anomaly, and quantile mapping (QM) to produce high-resolution (1 km) grid data at a daily time scale. The results show that the systematic bias of the RCM was significantly reduced by simply substituting the climatological observational seasonal cycle at a daily timescale for each grid point obtained from the PRISM. QM was then applied to correct additional systematic bias by constructing the transfer functions under the cumulative density function framework between the model and observation using six types of transfer functions. K-fold cross-validation of the PRIDE model shows that the number of modeled precipitation days is approximately 90~121% of the number of observed precipitation days for the five daily precipitation classes, indicating that the PRIDE model reasonably estimates the observational frequency of daily precipitation under a quantile framework. The relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is also discussed in the framework of the intensity of daily precipitation.  相似文献   

A Photometric Study of EB-type eclipsing binary GO CYG     

Kyu-Dong Oh  Young Woon Kang  Kee Suk Ra  Hong Suh Park 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2000,271(3):303-320

Two colour (B and V) photoelectric observations of EB-type eclipsing binary GO Cyg were carried out for 15 nights during October and December 1996. Three new times of minimum lights have been derived. With these and previously published times of minimum lights, a continuous period increase of dP/dt = 1.51 × 10^-7 d yr^-1 was estimated from the quadratic light element. B and V light curves have been analyzed by the method of the Wilson and Devinney Differential Correction. GO Cyg is confirmed to belong to the group of near contact systems based on light curve analysis and its absolute dimensions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Prospects of using Bayesian model averaging for the calibration of one-month forecasts of surface air temperature over South Korea     

Chansoo Kim  Myoung-Seok Suh 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(3):301-311

In this study, we investigated the prospect of calibrating probabilistic forecasts of surface air temperature (SAT) over South Korea by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We used 63 months of simulation results from four regional climate models (RCMs) with two boundary conditions (NCEP-DOE and ERA-interim) over the CORDEX East Asia. Rank histograms and residual quantile-quantile (R-Q-Q) plots showed that the simulation skills of the RCMs differ according to season and geographic location, but the RCMs show a systematic cold bias irrespective of season and geographic location. As a result, the BMA weights are clearly dependent on geographic location, season, and correlations among the models. The one-month equal weighted ensemble (EWE) outputs for the 59 stations over South Korea were calibrated using the BMA method for 48 monthly time periods based on BMA weights obtained from the previous 15 months of training data. The predictive density function was calibrated using BMA and the individual forecasts were weighted according to their performance. The raw ensemble forecasts were assessed using the flatness of the rank histogram and the R-Q-Q plot. The results showed that BMA improves the calibration of the EWE and the other weighted ensemble forecasts irrespective of season, simulation skill of the RCM, and geographic location. In addition, deterministic-style BMA forecasts usually perform better than the deterministic forecast of the single best member.  相似文献   

Impact of lateral boundary conditions on precipitation and temperature extremes over South Korea in the CORDEX regional climate simulation using RegCM4   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Seok-Geun Oh  Myoung-Seok Suh  Dong-Hyun Cha 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(4):497-509

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Taxonomy and zoogeography of euchaetid copepods (Calanoida,Clausocalanoidea) from Korean waters,with notes on their female genital structure     

Man-Ki Jeong  Hae-Lip Suh  Ho Young Soh 《Ocean Science Journal》2011,46(2):117-132

Euchaetid copepods (Calanoida, Clausocalanoidea) were collected from the southeastern region of Korea and the East/Japan Sea from June 2007 to August 2008. Seven species were found and redescribed in this study: five species from the genus Euchaeta (E. concinna, E. indica, E. longicornis, E. plana and E. rimana) and two species from the genus Paraeuchaeta (P. elongata and P. russelli). Using scanning electron microscopy, we observed detailed taxonomic features with special references to their genital structure. The euchaetid copepods show speciesspecific characteristics on their genital structures, in particular on the shapes of genital operculum and genital flange. Their zoogeographies were also discussed. They can be regarded as an indicator species of the Tsushima Warm Current and East Sea Intermediate Water.  相似文献   

Intercomparison of prediction skills of ensemble methods using monthly mean temperature simulated by CMIP5 models     

Min-Gyu Seong  Myoung-Seok Suh  Chansoo Kim 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2017,53(3):339-351

This study focuses on an objective comparison of eight ensemble methods using the same data, training period, training method, and validation period. The eight ensemble methods are: BMA (Bayesian Model Averaging), HMR (Homogeneous Multiple Regression), EMOS (Ensemble Model Output Statistics), HMR+ with positive coefficients, EMOS+ with positive coefficients, PEA_ROC (Performance-based Ensemble Averaging using ROot mean square error and temporal Correlation coefficient), WEA_Tay (Weighted Ensemble Averaging based on Taylor’s skill score), and MME (Multi-Model Ensemble). Forty-five years (1961-2005) of data from 14 CMIP5 models and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation- Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources) data were used to compare the performance of the eight ensemble methods. Although some models underestimated the variability of monthly mean temperature (MMT), most of the models effectively simulated the spatial distribution of MMT. Regardless of training periods and the number of ensemble members, the prediction skills of BMA and the four multiple linear regressions (MLR) were superior to the other ensemble methods (PEA_ROC, WEA_Tay, MME) in terms of deterministic prediction. In terms of probabilistic prediction, the four MLRs showed better prediction skills than BMA. However, the differences among the four MLRs and BMA were not significant. This resulted from the similarity of BMA weights and regression coefficients. Furthermore, prediction skills of the four MLRs were very similar. Overall, the four MLRs showed the best prediction skills among the eight ensemble methods. However, more comprehensive work is needed to select the best ensemble method among the numerous ensemble methods.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional imaging of subsurface structures using resistivity data   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Myeong-Jong Yi  Jung-Ho Kim  Yoonho Song  Seong-Jun Cho  Seung-Hwan Chung  Jung-Hee Suh 《Geophysical Prospecting》2001,49(4):483-497

We have developed a three-dimensional inverse scheme for carrying out DC resistivity surveys, incorporating complicated topography as well as arbitrary electrode arrays. The algorithm is based on the finite-element approximation to the forward problem, so that the effect of topographic variation on the resistivity data is effectively evaluated and incorporated in the inversion. Furthermore, we have enhanced the resolving power of the inversion using the active constraint balancing method. Numerical verifications show that a correct earth image can be derived even when complicated topographic variation exists. By inverting the real field data acquired at a site for an underground sewage disposal plant, we obtained a reasonable image of the subsurface structures, which correlates well with the surface geology and drill log data.  相似文献   

Delineating the northern part of the Socotra Basin, offshore Korea, using marine magnetics     

M. Suh  T. F. Abdallatif  J. Han  S. Choi  J. Oh 《Geo-Marine Letters》2005,25(6):360-369

A marine magnetic survey was carried out in and around the northern part of Socotra Basin, offshore Korea (31°42′32″–32°46′29″N and 123°56′26″–125°49′16″E), in order to better delineate its northern and eastern boundaries. Analyses of the observed magnetic field and estimation of the basement depth were used to assess these boundaries. The power spectrum and the three-dimensional analytical signal methods were used for depth estimation and to reconstruct basement configuration. Estimated depths resulting from the power spectrum method range from 1.5 to 6.0 km for deep sources (basement troughs), and from 0.3 to 1.7 km for shallower sources (basement peaks). An isopach map shows that the sedimentary sequence varies from 1.4 to 6.0 km in thickness. Estimated depths from the analytic signal method fluctuate in the range 1.2–6 km. The results of the observed field analysis and depth estimation indicate good agreement with the formerly proposed eastern boundary but disagreement with the northern boundary. The findings suggest either an extension of the Socotra Basin or the existence of other sub-basins possibly interconnected with the study area.  相似文献   

Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models     

Keon-Tae SOHN  H. Joe KWON  Ae-Sook SUH 《大气科学进展》2003,20(3):379-384

This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.  相似文献